Following the release of the Government’s new remit for the Low Pay Commission (LPC) when recommending National Living Wage (NLW) and National Minimum Wage (NMW) rates that will apply from April 2026, the LPC has revealed its latest projections for the NLW.
The Government has asked the LPC to “ensure that the National Living Wage rate does not drop below two-thirds of UK median earnings for workers in the National Living Wage population, a recognised measure of low hourly pay.” The LPC’s updated central estimate of the NLW that will be required from April 2026 to ensure the NLW does not fall below two-thirds of median earnings is £12.71 per hour (a 4.1% increase from the current rate of £12.21 per hour). However, due to difficulties in predicting this figure, the LPC has projected a range around its central estimate from £12.55 to £12.86 per hour.
What is the predicted rate of national living wage for 2026?
The LPC’s recommendations are not based on formula alone. It is also required to consider economic conditions and factors including the cost of living, inflation forecasts between April 2026 and April 2027 and the impact on the labour market, business and competitiveness. For that reason, the figures are indicative only and may be changed.
These latest estimates have already increased since the LPC’s previous projections in May 2025. The NLW rate for April 2026 that is recommended by the LPC in October 2025 may be higher again than these current projections if wage growth continues to be stronger than forecast.
